Wednesday, August 3, 2011

Future of Norway

Anders Behring Breivik, the man who has admitted carrying out the unprecedented killing spree last Friday in which at least 76 people died, was making his first appearance before a judge.

The car bombing in Oslo and the shooting of scores of young men and women on an island nearby, were carried out in the name of an extreme racist and Islamaphobic ideology, with the ultimate goal of reversing Muslim migration to Europe.

But instead of attacking Muslims directly, he launched his meticulously planned assault on what he saw as the root cause of the "problem" - the governing Labour party and its liberal immigration policies.

When the attack began last Friday afternoon with a huge car-bomb detonated outside the main government buildings, Norway's Muslim community braced itself for the worst, assuming that what had happened was the work of Islamist militants.

Norway’s future leaders overflowed
They had visions of Norway as a nation that welcomed refugees, where the oil drilling that made the country wealthy would be curbed by environmental concerns, where young adults would get cheaper bus tickets and free condoms.

To someone older, more weary, those might sound like naive, callow visions. But to read about the past activism of the victims of the Utoya massacre is to appreciate the hopes and dreams of young women and men of an affluent, orderly country famous for social democracy and welfare-state generosity.

Norway’s future liberal elite had gathered on bucolic Utoya Island for the traditional summer camp of the AUF, the youth wing of the ruling Labour Party.

And now at least 68 of them wouldn’t come back, felled by the guns of Anders Behring Breivik, a staggering loss for a small nation of five million people.

“Utoya is my youth paradise, which yesterday was transformed into Hell,” Norwegian Prime Minister Jens Stoltenberg said after the mass shooting.

That loss of innocence was exemplified by Hanne Kristine Fridtun, a 20-year-old who last year was elected AUF leader for the Sogn og Fjordane region in southwestern Norway.

She had been known as a big-hearted activist who worried about municipal accessibility for people in wheelchairs. She had pushed for free condoms and other contraceptives for young people so they could avoid the trauma of abortion.

Now her name was reported around the world as the victim who was on her cellphone, bearing witness to the tragedy until the line went silent.

A reporter with the Norwegian national broadcaster NRK had reached her around 6 p.m. Friday, when the rampage had begun.

“I can’t speak loudly, I have to whisper,” she said, according to Norwegian and Swedish media accounts.

“Twenty of us have hidden down by the reeds. We’ve heard shooting. We don’t know what’s happening.

Norway's oil future
The company said the 150 to 250 million barrels of oil equivalent Skrugard discovery in the Barents Sea could potentially hold up to 500 million barrels and is the most significant off Norway in the last decade. It said a nearby prospect also looked promising. “This is fantastic, a breakthrough for us in this section of the Barents Sea,” Gro Gunleiksrud Haatvedt, Statoil’s head of exploration off Norway.
This find will lead to a new boom in exploration in the area,” said Magnus Smistad, an analyst at Fondsfinans. “This is an exciting area and the potential could be even bigger.”

Statoil shares climbed 2.2 per cent to 156.7 crowns while shares in Italy’s Eni, which has a 30 per cent stake in the licence, rose 1.85 per cent to 17.65 euros.

Norway is the world’s fifth-largest oil exporter and the second-largest for gas but its oil output has been declining since 2001 and oil discoveries have become ever smaller.

In January Norwegian authorities slashed their estimates for offshore undiscovered oil and gas resources by 21 per cent to 16.4 billion barrels of oil equivalent, making the country less attractive to oil majors – until today.

“This discovery is the missing element needed to develop the Barents Sea into an oil province over the long-term,” Norwegian Minister of Petroleum and Energy Ola Borten Moe said in a statement.

Finding oil in the Barents Sea has been tough. More than 80 exploration wells have been drilled there since 1980 but only two discoveries have been made – Statoil’s Snoehvit gas field and Eni’s Goliat oilfield.

Norway - Future trends
Norway will most likely preserve its healthy economy and high living standards over the next decades, although the EU membership controversy will, no doubt, continue to be a major issue in domestic politics.

Privatization will enter the oil industry as Statoil is expected to be partly privatized in 2001. The Labor government will further sell a part of the State Direct Financial Interest in offshore oil production and will continue to invite major foreign investors to the industry. Gradual liberalization of offshore oil licensing policy will attract smaller foreign companies to the sector. Foreign trade—except in agriculture, fishing, and energy—will gradually become more and more regulated by the EU through the EEA.

Future of China

China's Future Shock
Expensive mountain bike, Zhang Xiao-Guang might be a typical 28-year-old in practically any city. Until you sit down for a meal and hear him relate the kind of rags-to-riches tale you only hear in two places in the world anymore.
Soon, Zhang will join Beijing's brigade of suits, part of the parade of salary men chasing the double-digit growth in the capital. Ten years ago, though, this scared, wiry teen had more in common with a different demographic group: the enormous, 250-million strong migrant population. Meaning, he lived like any homeless person, only while working his way through university.

He hauled water by bucket to his single room in an enormous concrete housing bunker in Beijing. Unsanitary, unheated. "I was living like a migrant worker," he recalls. "There was no water, no shower, no toilet. I had to go outside. The worst was winter. It was freezing."

Zhang burned coal in his unventilated room, a practice banned by Beijing authorities both because of the human and environmental risk, but a law largely ignored and gladly broken by Zhang whenever he had the means to. Otherwise, he lingered in his university library, not so much to soak up knowledge as a few precious hours of warmth.

Zhang had already battled his way to Beijing, like millions more from China's vast hinterland. He had daringly also defied the government, rejecting a university posting in Shijiazhuang, capital of Hebei Province, where he was raised.

Few from the farms in his hometown ever escaped, but Zhang had grander dreams. One view of Shijiazhuang, and he was set. "It was dirty, ugly," he recalls. "I wanted something different. I didn't know what exactly, since I was young. Freedom, I guess."

He earned that in Beijing, but at a price, sleeping on floors until he found a place at one of the many private business colleges springing up to serve ambitious youth like Zhang.

Even when he moved into his own room, there was little sleep. He worked nights at MacDonald's, earning under $1 an hour. Every buck eased the burden on his parents back home.

But what a difference a decade makes in the mainland. In 10 years, Zhang has moved from flipping burgers to management training. His salary at Siemens' Management Institute in Beijing, will be more than the state railway pays teachers like his parents in a full year. Such is the speed of change in China in less than a generation.

global population of the North East Asia (China, Taiwan, Japan and the two Koreas ) attains 1,524 million in 2004. It would stabilize and reach about 1,542 million in 2030. The global GNI accounts for $7,565 Billion in 2004. We can expect about $28,000 Billion in 2030. Clearly, the future of China and North East Asia is bright. The region will be the main economic center in the world.

China has quadrupled its GDP since 1980. Thanks to foreign investments and a fast transfer of technology, this country has realized in twenty years that Japan and South korea have realized in 45 years. The Chinese GDP ($2,133 Billion in including Taiwan and Hong Kong) could attain $18,000 Billion in 2030.
Is the Chinese growth expected to going on? Clearly, we answer Yes. Thanks to its population, China represents a huge market and the economy can still enjoy a very high growth rate in the next future. Despite political and social uncertainties, we are confident because of the quality of the Chinese youth. 400 Million are aged between 20 and 39 (Only 110 million in Western Europe ) and constitute the main labor force. These people are well educated, enthusiastic about business entrepreneurship, eager to work as much as they can. They focus on ethics and values. They show a real openness to the world. The Chinese youth is better prepared than the European youth to the coming world. In our opinion, it is the most important asset of China.

China and the West
China will undoubtedly be one of the great dramas of the twenty-first century. China's extraordinary economic growth and active diplomacy are already transforming East Asia, and future decades will see even greater increases in Chinese power and influence. But exactly how this drama will play out is an open question. Will China overthrow the existing order or become a part of it? And what, if anything, can the United States do to maintain its position as China rises?
Some observers believe that the American era is coming to an end, as the Western-oriented world order is replaced by one increasingly dominated by the East. The historian Niall Ferguson has written that the bloody twentieth century witnessed "the descent of the West" and "a reorientation of the world" toward the East. Realists go on to note that as China gets more powerful and the United States' position erodes, two things are likely to happen: China will try to use its growing influence to reshape the rules and institutions of the international system to better serve its interests, and other states in the system -- especially the declining hegemon -- will start to see China as a growing security threat. The result of these developments, they predict, will be tension, distrust, and conflict, the typical features of a power transition. In this view, the drama of China's rise will feature an increasingly powerful China and a declining United States locked in an epic battle over the rules and leadership of the international system. And as the world's largest country emerges not from within but outside the established post-World War II international order, it is a drama that will end with the grand ascendance of China and the onset of an Asian-centered world order.

Future of india

India 2050 uncertain future
India is playing an increasingly important role in the global economy and, correspondingly, in resource use and emissions. Yet, the modelling tools for exploring the opportunities and threats for India, and for other parts of the world as a consequence of this development, suffer from conceptual limitations. This report explores options for improvement, especially given the large heterogeneity of India that is difficult to capture in aggregate average data. Model-based simulations indicate that India's population by 2050 will be over 1.5 billion, displaying a large population momentum that is one of the drivers of economic growth. Forward calculations with the demographic model, PHOENIX, and the IFs Economy model show that such developments of population and income are possible, provided that sufficient and timely investments in health care and education take place. Additional model simulations, including those using the TIMER energy model, indicate that ecological and socio-economic constraints might bar these positive developments. Only rigorous government policy initiatives striving for sustainable management of India's resources (land, water, energy) and appropriate investments in education and health can lead to a real increase in well-being for a large part of the population.

Future China vs. India
forsee a war between China and India in the future. A former head of the World Bank (or it might have been the IMF) recently said that China and India would, before 2050, overtake the G7 in terms of GDP. And many can see that China and India will be the next world superpowers. These countries are developing and growing at a fantastic rate. There are basic, fundamental differences between India and China, in terms of Government (Democracy vs. Socialist), Ideology, and Economy (China is gearing itself towards industry, whereas India is going more toward the service sector). Both China and India are heavily armed, and updating their militaries. Both are nucleur armed nations. Both are increasing their spending on the armed forces. China has the largest military in the world, and India has the 4th largest. These issues would cause another cold war, like what was experienced between the USA and the USSR. HOWEVER, unlike the US and USSR, there is no ocean seperating China and India. They share a border! The USA and the USSR had different spheres of influence during the Cold War. The US had South America and Western Europe, and the USSR had Asia and Eastern Europe. They STILL came very, very close to war. India and China do NOT have seperate spheres of influence. They are right next to each other. They are competing for essentially the same markets. Furthermore, they have a hisory of conflict. For these reasons, I predict a war between India and China.

India and Pakistan Future
India and Pakistan have been locked in a bitter rivalry with decades-old roots that have almost erupted into outright war several times. In a contentious post-9/11 world, the threat is even greater as the conflict has, on multiple occasions, threatened to escalate into nuclear war.

However, as a year full of international tension and military maneuvering between India and Pakistan came to a close, there was a glimmer of hope. The two countries signed a landmark accord agreeing to cooperate on military matters. Although made between two non-official organizations, it was the first time the adversaries had worked together in such a manner. The accord outlined a plan to share limited military and security information between India’s Institute of Defense Studies and Analysis and Pakistan’s Institute for Strategic Studies.

Why such deep-seated animosity between these nuclear rivals? What does the future hold for them? Will the recently signed security pact be the first step toward lasting peace in the region.
On Dec. 13, 2001, a small group of heavily-armed Pakistani militants stormed India’s parliamentary compound, attempting to assassinate key government leaders. The plot, which left eight Indian citizens and all five terrorists dead, could have been far worse. India demanded that Pakistan take immediate and decisive action against the groups responsible. To show their seriousness, New Delhi deployed half a million Indian soldiers to the border; Pakistani forces responded in kind.

The crisis was soon averted when Pervez Musharraf, Pakistan’s president at the time, promised a government crackdown on radical groups within its borders. Nevertheless, many Indians felt as if Mr. Musharraf was only cracking down on certain groups while tacitly allowing others to continue operation.

Any hope of easing further tensions was shattered just months later, in May 2002, when militants attacked an Indian military base in Jammu, killing the wives and children of servicemen. Seen as an attack on India itself, the incident resurrected Hindu-Muslim animosity.

The international community watched as hundreds of thousands of Indian and Pakistani troops once again stared at each other across the border, this time with heightened intensity. Growing uncertainty threatened, like no other time, to “go nuclear.”

After months of hair-trigger readiness, tensions slowly eased when the Indian army was redeployed away from the border. However, decades of past bitterness remained unresolved.

Today, both countries have partial dominion over a region that each believes is rightfully theirs. Further, there remains an underlying feeling by many Indians that Pakistan has gone unpunished. In turn, Pakistan feels increasingly threatened by the presence of Indian troops amassed at the border.

Future India Information
India has a promising future, given the unprecedented growth in economy and its clout in the global issues. India is now riding on the wave of a gigantic boom in computer driven new economy. Many developed countries of the world are seeking the huge pool of English speaking talented software professionals in India. Premier professional institutes like IIT and IIM have become the source of big international corporates' human resource need, both overseas and within India.

India is also a nuclear power. Its security concerns have been to some extent allayed by the possession of nuclear weapons, though fears remain of an expensive military expenditure to sustain the nuclear programs.

India is also poised to become the entertainment superpower. Already the Bollywood is churning out hundreds of films annually. With improvements in the technical and artistic aspects India can well give a stiff competition to western productions.

Indian culture is influencing the western world in dress, food and festivals. The Indian Diaspora is increasing in economic prosperity and status. The Indian community is a force to reckon with in every country because of its contribution to the country concerned. Indian lobby groups are funding partly some of the elections in vital countries of the world.

The 21st century could well belong to India if it fully utilize its resources and expertise. India's population is an asset and not a pull down factor. Finally India is going to prove just that.

Future of Russia

Future of Foundation
Future of Russian Foundation (FOR) is the only U.S. charitable foundation created for and solely committed to the mission of modernizing the Russian system for delivery of health care to women of reproductive age and infants, addressing Russia’s declining population, identified in then-President Putin’s inaugural address as Russia’s “greatest crisis.” Funded initially by the U.S. private sector ($3 m. in seed money from the family of Founder and Chairman Thomas J. Murray, $2 m. equipment gift from the employees of the General Electric Company through its Elfin Foundation, continuing support from the Coca Cola Company, and on-going leadership and support from the Atlanta Rotary Club), US government support has come from the Open World Leadership Program at the Library of Congress, now in its third year partnering with FOR, and in 2004, USAID’s first health care grant ($500,000) in Russia under its Global Development Alliance Program.

FOR operates by intense collaboration between American health care professionals and their Russian counterparts on the principle that healthy young women have healthy pregnancies, and that healthy mothers give birth to healthy babies. Training of perinatal professionals at all levels has occurred through bi-lateral exchanges, Russian teams consisting of neonatalogists, pediatricians, obstetricians, hospital administrators, midwives, and nurses spending a week each year in Atlanta, Georgia, working with American professionals at Emory University Medical School, the World Health Organization/Collaborating Center for Reproductive Health (WHO/CC/RH), and the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), with reciprocal visits of American teams to Balashikha, under the direction of Dr. Alfred W. Brann, Jr., FOR Medical Director and Director of the WHO/CC/RH.

Russia research to reality
presidential think-tank has proposed radical changes in Russia, including a return to certain liberal elements of Yeltsin’s policy, a multi-party system and cutting the president’s term.
The Institute of Contemporary Development (INSOR), whose board of trustees is chaired by President Dmitry Medvedev, outlined its vision of the country’s future in a 66-page report entitled "21st Century Russia: the Image of Tomorrow We Want", which was released Wednesday.
“Modernization” and “innovation” have become key words characterizing Medvedev’s presidency so far. The head of state has called for changes in almost all spheres of the political and social life of the country.
The idea of working out a systemized approach and defining exact steps in moving towards desired aims has long been in the air. The Russian business daily “Vedomosti” writes that the idea of a report on the issue came up last summer. Kremlin aide Arkady Dvorkovich said that Medvedev had received a draft of the proposals a few weeks ago, but had yet to comment.

Russia and China
China. The 2008 Beijing Games this week joined the 1956 Melbourne Olympics, the 1968 Mexico City Olympics, and the 1980 Moscow Olympics. These four Olympiads were overshadowed by Russian attacks on neighboring countries that Moscow deemed overly independent. The timing of the attacks on Hungary, Czechoslovakia, Afghanistan and Georgia was not coincidental: In the United States, Olympic years are also election years. And when Uncle Sam is heading for the ballot box, he is weak, and cannot prevent a Russian bear from devouring. For the fourth time in half a century, the Russian bear emerged from Olympic hibernation and feasted to his heart's content.

Russia. The Georgians liken the Russians to the Nazis. They believe Ossetia and Abkhazia of 2008 resemble the Sudetenland of 1938. As far as they are concerned, Vladimir Putin is Hitler, ripping chunks out of a neighboring democracy to destabilize and vanquish it.

The Georgians exaggerate, but under Putin's leadership, Russia is turning into a new Germany. Not the Germany of the Fuhrer and the swastika, but the Germany of the Kaiser and Bismarck. Like Germany in its day, Russia is a power in the process of getting renewed, reunited and rich, seeking to restore its lost hegemony.

Like Germany in the past, Russia in the present is a world power whose size, location and nationalism threaten its surroundings. Since Russia has friendly ethnic minorities in small neighboring countries - its potential for expansion and friction is high. Therefore, just as Germany destabilized the old European order even before Hitler, Russia is destabilizing the new European order.

Russia's Future Energy
Today energy is the decisive driver of Russian foreign and domestic policy. Presidential Aide Vladislav Surkov’s recent speech to United Russia activists showed the government is prepared to sacrifice everything to become an energy superpower. In Surkov’s words, if you have long legs, you should do the long jump, not play chess. But the plan to become an energy superpower will not succeed.

Not only will the Kremlin plan ultimately fail, but it is also causing harm now. The authorities promote the “energy superpower” idea instead of fixing economic and social problems. Sustainable development and international competitiveness have vanished from the agenda. Instead there is only this phantom idea, which holds out the promise of a footprint in the global geopolitical landscape.

In discussing the resource curse, people normally mention weak institutions, corruption, and perverse political incentives. But Russia faces a more basic problem—it doesn’t have enough resources. Only a few petrostates have enough resources per capita to create a good life for their people. All have small populations. (Norway, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar are in this category.) With Russia’s large population the state cannot rely only on resource revenue to promote development. Even if the state were to expropriate all oil profits, it would have only $80 per person per month to redistribute. Moreover the Russian economy is extremely energy-intensive and the country’s large territory imposes significant transportation costs, limiting export capability. So the Kremlin cannot build an economic and social policy on energy alone.

President Vladimir Putin has abandoned the reform agenda of his first term. He has done nothing to address problems in banking, the army, pensions, and infrastructure. Now the government focuses only on the “national projects,” i.e. redistribution.

Such thinking is especially misguided given the problems in the energy sector. Increasing state encroachment is undermining growth. While private companies continue to perform well, state enterprises stagnate. The return on assets in Gazprom and Rosneft is stable under 10 percent, well below average for the oil and gas industry. These companies have a lot of capital but can’t use it efficiently.

Russia Its Future
Russia is said by many to lack a “civil society.” But it partly makes up for this by having a rather interesting public sphere, in which serious topics do get debated, and where glimpses of the great are not entirely confined to televised snippets.

The first fortnight in September saw successive meetings of two major Russian political groups, the Valdai Discussion Club and the Global Policy Forum. The first was on a boat and ended with dinner with Prime Minister Vladimir Putin at Sochi on the Black Sea. The second, in Yaroslavl, culminated in a symposium with President Dmitri Medvedev. Scholars, think-tankers, and journalists (both Russian and foreign) joined political and business leaders to discuss Russia’s future.

Three things made these events unusual in a typically Russian way. The first was the intense media interest. Indeed, even the most camera-shy academic can suddenly find himself a TV star in Russia.

Second was the willingness of both Putin and Medvedev to engage publicly with experts on the experts’ own intellectual turf. The only recent Western political leader I can think of who had the confidence to do this was Bill Clinton.

Finally, the two events saw the emergence of two rival political courts, each exuding the faint but unmistakable odor of a looming conflict. For those with eyes to see, the two conferences presented a fascinating glimpse of a crumbling diarchy.

The main theme of the Valdai conference concerned whether Russia’s history and geography doomed it to authoritarian rule. If democracy was the wave of the future, was Russia destined to miss out.

Future and the United States

United States of America has got independence on July 4th 1776. But the time is unknown. So, Astrologers have taken different timings and drawn several horoscope charts for USA. Of the many charts proposed for that day, the most widely accepted continues to be the Sibly chart, set for 5.10 PM on 4th July 1776 in Philadelphia. This chart is constructed by taking the major events happened during the course of several events that have their own impact on the country.

As the opening decade of the twenty-first century draws to a close, what is the future of the United States in an increasingly complex and fluid world order?

In a prospective global scenario in which China dominates and reshapes Asia, India becomes a major economic power and extends its influence into Africa, Islam continues to spread its brand of social dominion, and Europe has become a loose confederation of states trying to maintain some semblance of importance, what role will the United States play?

It has become conventional wisdom that over the next 25 to thirty years, the United States will continue to experience a precipitous decline, and that China will become the dominant power in the world alongside the massive growth of countries such as India and Brazil. In short, according to the doom-and-gloom crowd, the days of U.S. world influence may well be over.

This assumes the global scenario of the past few centuries when just one part of the world dominated international affairs. That has been Europe (and by extension, the United States). Globalization combined with foolhardy economic and social policies has diffused power away from the West. But that power is moving to countries that have within their societies many built-in factors that will limit their ability to achieve global hegemonic power.

In the case of both China and India, their overwhelming populations and the increasing demands by the people for a piece of the expanding economic pie will force these countries to focus more on internal matters or risk societal upheaval. China, for example, if foolish enough to physically conquer other lands, will only add to its unsustainable internal burden. China can therefore be expected to rely instead on economic supremacy within its own sphere of influence.

Those nations dominated by Islamic fundamentalism will not experience growth, as the nature of their vision of Islam will prevent the expansion of capitalism. In order to keep their populations at bay, brutality will be the order of the day. Their major source of income, the exploitation of natural resources (mainly oil), can be replaced as other nations, such as the United States, tap into their own vast reserves of petroleum-related resources.

Europe will continue its decline, with Russia clinging desperately to past days of glory as a world superpower. However, with the negative birthrates throughout the continent and the widespread fealty to social democracy, Europe's influence will wane as the years go by, and within forty years, it will resemble the European city-states of the Middle Ages -- but still a major consumer and economic arena.

Thus, the world that will arise from these factors is not one of domination by one country or region, but one that contains numerous centers of power.

As these centers of power mature, they will take care of security and military matters within their domain. As long as nuclear weapons exist and these nations have them, the old Cold War theory of mutually assured destruction will act as a deterrent against global war. Within their orbit, these nations will have greater incentive to constrain the rogue states and dictators from obtaining weapons of mass destruction, as they will not want to risk conflagration and destroy their power base. Thus, the United States will not be alone in maintaining peace and acting as the world's policeman.

Beyond just military or security issues, the United States will be even more vital in this new world order.

These new centers of power will require a clearinghouse or arbitrator that has its foot in the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian Ocean spheres of influence. Only the United States is in this position -- due not only to factors of geography, but also to the melting-pot influence of the population and the sheer size of its economy.

However, it is incumbent on the United States to get its house in order. Fiscal and monetary policy must recognize the reality of current financial mismanagement. The current ruling class and its Euro-socialist mindset must be replaced with those who are willing to deal with these matters honestly and lead the American people with honor and integrity. The first (albeit embryonic) steps were taken in the midterm election of 2010, but much more needs to be done and equitable sacrifices made by all segments of society.

Further, the country must focus on becoming the foremost haven for business in the world and revamp its foreign policy that is still based on the twentieth-century model of superpower confrontation.

The matter that could throw the remainder of this century into worldwide chaos and the United States into anarchy is not the emergence of other nations, but the collapse of the United States. That overall possibility rests solely in the hands of the American people.