Precious metal

Precious metal,

A precious metal is a rare, naturally occurring metallic chemical element of high economic value, which is not radioactive (excluding natural polonium, radium, actinium and protactinium). Chemically, the precious metals are less reactive than most elements, have high lustre, are softer or more ductile, and have higher melting points than other metals. Historically, precious metals were important as currency, but are now regarded mainly as investment and industrial commodities. Gold, silver, platinum, and palladium each have an ISO 4217 currency code.

The best-known precious metals are the coinage metals gold and silver. While both have industrial uses, they are better known for their uses in art, jewellery and coinage. Other precious metals include the platinum group metals: ruthenium, rhodium, palladium, osmium, iridium, and platinum, of which platinum is the most widely traded.

The demand for precious metals is driven not only by their practical use, but also by their role as investments and a store of value. Historically, precious metals have commanded much higher prices than common industrial metals. In December 2009, gold reached a price of over $1200.00/troy ounce and silver was about $15.00/troy ounce, compared to copper at $0.11/troy ounce and nickel at $0.36/troy ounce.

Bullion

A 500 gram silver bullion bar produced by Johnson Matthey

American Platinum Eagle bullion coin

A metal is deemed to be precious if it is rare. The discovery of new sources of ore or improvements in mining or refining processes may cause the value of a precious metal to diminish. The status of a "precious" metal can also be determined by high demand or market value. Precious metals in bulk form are known as bullion, and are traded on commodity markets. Bullion metals may be cast into ingots, or minted into coins. The defining attribute of bullion is that it is valued by its mass and purity rather than by a face value as money.

Many nations mint bullion coins. Although nominally issued as legal tender, these coins' face value as currency is far below that of their value as bullion. For instance, Canada mints a gold bullion coin (the Gold Maple Leaf) at a face value of $50 containing one troy ounce (31.1035 g) of gold—as of July 2009, this coin is worth about $1,075 CAD as bullion.Bullion coins' minting by national governments gives them some numismatic value in addition to their bullion value, as well as certifying their purity.

Silver 1000oz bar

The level of purity varies from issue to issue. 99.9% purity is common. The purest mass-produced bullion coins are in the Canadian Gold Maple Leaf series, which go up to 99.999% purity. Note that a 100% pure bullion is not possible, as absolute purity in extracted and refined metals can only be asymptotically approached. Many bullion coins contain a stated quantity (such as one troy ounce) of the marginally-impure alloy. In contrast, the Krugerrand is one of many historic and modern bullion coins of 22 Kt Crown gold, with a stated content (usually one troy ounce) of "fine gold"[clarification needed (define)], with the other component(s) of the alloy making the coin heavier than one ounce in total. Still more bullion coins (for example: British Sovereign) state neither the purity nor the fine-gold weight on the coin, but are recognized and consistent in their composition,[citation needed] and many historically stated a denomination in currency (example: American Double Eagle).

One of the largest bullion coins in the world is the 10,000 dollar Australian Gold Nugget coin minted in Australia which consists of a full kilogram of 99.9% pure gold. There have been a small number of larger bullion coins, but they are impractical to handle and not produced in mass quantities. China has produced coins in very limited quantities (less than 20 pieces minted) that exceed 260 troy ounces (8 kg) of gold.[citation needed] Austria has minted a coin containing 31 kg of gold (the Vienna Philharmonic Coin minted in 2004 with a face value of 100,000 euro). As a stunt to publicise the 99.999% pure one-ounce Canadian Gold Maple Leaf series, in 2007 the Royal Canadian Mint made a 100 kg 99.999% gold coin, with a face value of $1 million, and now manufactures them to order, but at a substantial premium over the market value of the gold.

Gold and silver are often seen as hedges against both inflation and economic downturn. Silver coins have become popular with collectors due to their relative affordability, and unlike most gold and platinum issues which are valued based upon the markets, silver issues are more often valued as collectables, far higher than their actual bullion value.

Aluminium

A precious metal that became common is aluminium. Although aluminium is one of the most commonly occurring elements on Earth, it was at one time found to be exceedingly difficult to extract from its various ores. This made the little available pure aluminium, which had been refined at great expense, more valuable than gold. Bars of aluminium were exhibited alongside the French crown jewels at the Exposition Universelle of 1855, and Napoleon III's most important guests were given aluminium cutlery, while those less worthy dined with mere silver. Additionally, the pyramidal top to the Washington Monument is made of 100 ounces of pure aluminium. At the time of the monument's construction, aluminium was as expensive as silver. Over time, however, the price of the metal has dropped; the invention of the Hall-Héroult process in 1886 caused the high price of aluminium to permanently collapse.

Bismuth and tellurium

Bismuth and tellurium are the only two metals which have abundances less than 10-8 by mass part (g/g) in the Earth's crust, but which are currently not of high economic value.

Rough world market prices

Valuable metal prices containing all precious metals names in bold

metal	mass abundance	price 2009-04-10	price 2009-07-22	price 2010-01-07
Platinum	5 ppb	$42681/kg	$37650/kg	$49995/kg
Rhodium	1 ppb	$39680/kg	$46200/kg	$88415/kg
Gold	4 ppb	$31100/kg	$30590/kg	$36370/kg
Iridium	1 ppb	$14100/kg	$12960/kg	$13117/kg
Osmium	1.5 ppb	$13400/kg	$12200/kg	$12217/kg
Palladium	15 ppb	$8430/kg	$8140/kg	$13632/kg
Rhenium	0.7 ppb	$7400/kg	$7000/kg	$6250/kg
Ruthenium	1 ppb	$2290/kg	$2730/kg	$5562/kg
Germanium	1500 ppb		$1050/kg	$1038/kg
Beryllium	2800 ppb		$850/kg
Silver	75 ppb	$437/kg	$439/kg	$588/kg
Gallium	19000 ppb		$425/kg	$413/kg
Indium	250 ppb		$325/kg	$520/kg
Tellurium	1 ppb			$158.70/kg
Mercury	85 ppb		$18.90/kg	$15.95/kg
Bismuth	8.5 ppb		$15.40/kg	$18.19/kg

(source:wikipedia)

Bilderberg Group

Bilderberg Group,

The Bilderberg Group, Bilderberg conference, or Bilderberg Club is an annual, unofficial, invitation-only conference of around 130 guests, most of whom are people of influence in the fields of politics, banking, business, the military and media. Each conference is closed to the public.

Origin

The original conference was held at the Hotel de Bilderberg, near Arnhem in The Netherlands, from 29 May to 31 May 1954. It was initiated by several people, including Polish politician Józef Retinger, concerned about the growth of anti-Americanism in Western Europe, who proposed an international conference at which leaders from European countries and the United States would be brought together with the aim of promoting atlanticism – better understanding between the cultures of the United States and Western Europe in order to foster cooperation on political, economic, and defense issues. Retinger approached Prince Bernhard of the Netherlands, who agreed to promote the idea, together with Belgian Prime Minister Paul Van Zeeland, and the head of Unilever at that time, Dutchman Paul Rijkens. Bernhard in turn contacted Walter Bedell Smith, then head of the CIA, who asked Eisenhower adviser Charles Douglas Jackson to deal with the suggestion The guest list was to be drawn up by inviting two attendees from each nation, one of each to represent conservative and liberal points of view. Fifty delegates from 11 countries in Western Europe attended the first conference, along with 11 Americans.

The success of the meeting led the organizers to arrange an annual conference. A permanent Steering Committee was established, with Retinger appointed as permanent secretary. As well as organizing the conference, the steering committee also maintained a register of attendee names and contact details, with the aim of creating an informal network of individuals who could call upon one another in a private capacity.[citation needed] Conferences were held in France, Germany, and Denmark over the following three years. In 1957, the first US conference was held in St. Simons, Georgia, with $30,000 from the Ford Foundation. The foundation supplied further funding for the 1959 and 1963 conferences.

Organizational structure

Meetings are organized by a steering committee with two members from each of around 18 nations. Official posts, in addition to a chairman, include an Honorary Secretary General. There is no such category in the group's rules as a "member of the group". The only category that exists is "member of the Steering Committee".In addition to the committee, there also exists a separate advisory group, though membership overlaps.

Dutch economist Ernst van der Beugel took over as permanent secretary in 1960, upon Retinger's death. Prince Bernhard continued to serve as the meeting's chairman until 1976, the year of his involvement in the Lockheed affair. The position of Honorary American Secretary General has been held successively by Joseph E. Johnson of the Carnegie Endowment, William Bundy of Princeton, Theodore L. Eliot, Jr., former U.S. Ambassador to Afghanistan, and Casimir A. Yost of Georgetown's Institute for the Study of Diplomacy.

A 2008 press release from the American Friends of Bilderberg stated that "Bilderberg's only activity is its annual Conference. At the meetings, no resolutions are proposed, no votes taken, and no policy statements issued" and noted that the names of attendees were available to the press. The Bilderberg group unofficial headquarters is the University of Leiden in the Netherlands.

According to the American Friends of Bilderberg, the 2008 agenda dealt "mainly with a nuclear free world, cyber terrorism, Africa, Russia, finance, protectionism, US-EU relations, Afghanistan and Pakistan, Islam and Iran.

Chairmen

Prince Bernhard of the Netherlands (1954–1975)

Walter Scheel

Alec Douglas-Home (1977–1980)

Eric Roll (1986–1989)

Lord Carrington (1990–1998)

Étienne Davignon

Participants

 List of Bilderberg participants

Historically, attendee lists have been weighted towards politicians, bankers, and directors of large businesses.

Heads of state, including Juan Carlos I of Spain and Queen Beatrix of the Netherlands, have attended meetings.Prominent politicians from North America and Europe are past attendees. In past years, board members from many large publicly-traded corporations have attended, including IBM, Xerox, Royal Dutch Shell, Nokia and Daimler.

The 2009 meeting participants in Greece included: Greek prime minister Kostas Karamanlis; Finnish prime minister Matti Vanhanen; Sweden foreign minister Carl Bildt; U.S. State Department number two James Steinberg; U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner; World Bank president Robert Zoellick; European Commission head José Manuel Barroso; Queen Sofia of Spain; and Queen Beatrix of the Netherlands.

European Union

In a European Parliament session in Brussels, Mario Borghezio, an Italian member of the European Parliament, questioned the nominations of Bilderberg and Trilateral attendees for the posts of EU President and EU foreign minister.

In 2009 the group had a dinner meeting at Castle of the Valley of the Duchess in Brussels on 12 November with the participation of Herman Van Rompuy, who later became the President of the European Council.

Conspiracy theories

Because of its secrecy and refusal to issue news releases, the group is frequently accused of political conspiracies. Critics include the John Birch Society, an American economic nationalist advocacy group, Canadian writer Daniel Estulin, British writer David Icke, American writer Jim Tucker, politician Jesse Ventura and radio host Alex Jones. The Bilderberg Group was the topic of a 2009 episode of the TruTV series Conspiracy Theory with Jesse Ventura.

Denis Healey, a Bilderberg founding member and, for 30 years, a steering committee member, has said:

“ To say we were striving for a one-world government is exaggerated, but not wholly unfair. Those of us in Bilderberg felt we couldn't go on forever fighting one another for nothing and killing people and rendering millions homeless. So we felt that a single community throughout the world would be a good thing. ”

In 2005 then-chairman Étienne Davignon discussed these accusations with the BBC.

“ It is unavoidable and it doesn't matter. There will always be people who believe in conspiracies but things happen in a much more incoherent fashion...When people say this is a secret government of the world I say that if we were a secret government of the world we should be bloody ashamed of ourselves. ”

Before the 2001 meeting, a report in The Guardian stated:

...the press have never been allowed access and all discussions are under Chatham House rules (no quoting). Not surprisingly, such ground rules, while attracting publicity-shy financiers, have also fuelled the fantasies of conspiracy theorists.

Jonathan Duffy, writing in BBC News Online Magazine, states:

No reporters are invited in and while confidential minutes of meetings are taken, names are not noted... In the void created by such aloofness, an extraordinary conspiracy theory has grown up around the group that alleges the fate of the world is largely decided by Bilderberg.

Investigative journalist Chip Berlet notes the existence of Bilderberger conspiracy theories as early as 1964, in the writings of conservative political activist Phyllis Schlafly. In Berlet's 1994 report Right Woos Left, published by Political Research Associates, he writes:

The views on intractable godless communism expressed by Schwarz were central themes in three other bestselling books which were used to mobilize support for the 1964 Barry Goldwater campaign. The best known was Phyllis Schlafly's A Choice, Not an Echo, which suggested a conspiracy theory in which the Republican Party was secretly controlled by elitist intellectuals dominated by members of the Bilderberger group, whose policies would pave the way for global communist conquest.

G. William Domhoff, a research professor in psychology and sociology who studies theories of power, sees the role of social clubs such as Bilderberg as being nothing more than a means to create social cohesion within a power elite. He adds that those understandings of the clubs such as the Bilderberg fit with the perceptions of the members of the elite. In a 2004 interview with New Internationalist magazine, Domhoff warns progressives against getting distracted by conspiracy theories which demonize such clubs and make scapegoats of them. He argues that the opponents of progressivism are the corporate elite, the Republican Party, and conservative Democrats. It is more or less the same people who belong to clubs such as the Bilderberg, but it puts them in their most important roles, as capitalists and political leaders, which are visible.

Recent meetings

List of Bilderberg meetings

Recent meetings:

2005 (5–8 May) at the Dorint Sofitel Seehotel Überfahrt in Rottach-Egern, Germany

2006 (8–11 June) at the Brookstreet Hotel in Kanata, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada

2007 (31 May – 3 June) at the Ritz-Carlton Hotel, in Şişli, Istanbul, Turkey.

2008 (5–8 June) at the Westfields Marriott in Chantilly, Virginia, United States

2009 (14–16 May) at the Astir Palace resort in Athens, Greece

2010 (3–7 June) at the Hotel Dolce in Sitges, Spain

(source:wikipedia)

Forex Ascending trend

A trend is a tendency for prices to move in a particular other direction over a period. Trends can be long term, short term, upward, downward and even sideways. Success with forex market investments is tied to the investor's ability to identify trends and position themselves for profitable entry and exit points. This article examines the stages of a forex trend and how they affect investors.

Economic Trends Reflected in Currencies

For the most part, an economy that is strong will also have a strong currency. Economic strength attracts investment, and investment creates demand for a currency. The demand for gold as an alternative to fiat currencies has led to a currency demand in those countries that produce gold such as Australia, South Africa and Canada.

Trend in forex and currency trading Ascending trend channels are a useful tool due to their ability to predict overall changes in trend. As long as prices remain within the ascending trend channel, the upward trend in price can be expected to continue. As soon as prices exceed either trendline forming the channel, however, a strong signal either to buy or to sell is generated. A break through the upper trendline generates a strong buy signal, while a break through the lower trendline generates a strong sell signal.

(source:wikipedia)

Market trend

Market trends,

A market trend is a putative tendency of a financial market to move in a particular direction over time.These trends are classified as secular trends for long time frames, primary trends for medium time frames, and secondary trends lasting short times. Traders identify market trends using technical analysis, a framework which characterizes market trends as a predictable price response of the market at levels of price support and price resistance, varying over time.

The terms bull market and bear market describe upward and downward market trends, respectively, and can be used to describe either the market as a whole or specific sectors and securities.

Secular market trends

A secular market trend is a long-term trend that lasts 5 to 25 years and consists of a series of sequential primary trends. A secular bear market consists of smaller bull markets and larger bear markets; a secular bull market consists of larger bull markets and smaller bear markets.

In a secular bull market the prevailing trend is "bullish" or upward moving. The United States was described as being in a secular bull market from about 1983 to 2000 (or 2007), with brief upsets including the crash of 1987 and the dot-com bust of 2000–2002.

In a secular bear market, the prevailing trend is "bearish" or downward moving. An example of a secular bear market was seen in gold during the period between January 1980 to June 1999, culminating with the Brown Bottom. During this period the nominal gold price fell from a high of $850/oz ($30/g) to a low of $253/oz ($9/g), and became part of the Great Commodities Depression.

Secondary market trends

Secondary trends are short-term changes in price direction within a primary trend. The duration is a few weeks or a few months.

One type of secondary market trend is called a market correction. A correction is a short term price decline of 5% to 20% or so. A correction is a downward movement that is not large enough to be a bear market (ex post).

Another type of secondary trend is called a bear market rally (or "sucker's rally") which consist of a market price increase of 10% to 20%. A bear market rally is an upward movement that is not large enough to be a bull market (ex post). Bear market rallies occurred in the Dow Jones index after the 1929 stock market crash leading down to the market bottom in 1932, and throughout the late 1960s and early 1970s. The Japanese Nikkei 225 has been typified by a number of bear market rallies since the late 1980s while experiencing an overall long-term downward trend.

Primary market trends

A primary trend has broad support throughout the entire market (most sectors) and lasts for a year or more.

Bull market

A bull market is associated with increasing investor confidence, and increased investing in anticipation of future price increases (capital gains). A bullish trend in the stock market often begins before the general economy shows clear signs of recovery. It is a win-win situation for the investors.

Examples

India's Bombay Stock Exchange Index, SENSEX, was in a bull market trend for about five years from April 2003 to January 2008 as it increased from 2,900 points to 21,000 points. A notable bull market was in the 1990s and most of the 1980s when the U.S. and many other stock markets rose; the end of this time period sees the dot-com bubble.

Bear market

A bear market is a general decline in the stock market over a period of time.It is a transition from high investor optimism to widespread investor fear and pessimism.

According to The Vanguard Group, "While there’s no agreed-upon definition of a bear market, one generally accepted measure is a price decline of 20% or more over at least a two-month period."

Examples

A bear market followed the Wall Street Crash of 1929 and erased 89% (from 386 to 40) of the Dow Jones Industrial Average's market capitalization by July 1932, marking the start of the Great Depression. After regaining nearly 50% of its losses, a longer bear market from 1937 to 1942 occurred in which the market was again cut in half. Another long-term bear market occurred from about 1973 to 1982, encompassing the 1970s energy crisis and the high unemployment of the early 1980s. Yet another bear market occurred between March 2000 and October 2002. The most recent example occurred between October 2007 and March 2009.

Market top

A market top (or market high) is usually not a dramatic event. The market has simply reached the highest point that it will, for some time (usually a few years). It is retroactively defined as market participants are not aware of it as it happens. A decline then follows, usually gradually at first and later with more rapidity. William J. O'Neil and company report that since the 1950s a market top is characterized by three to five distribution days in a major market index occurring within a relatively short period of time. Distribution is a decline in price with higher volume than the preceding session.

Examples

The peak of the dot-com bubble (as measured by the NASDAQ-100) occurred on March 24, 2000. The index closed at 4,704.73 and has not since returned to that level. The Nasdaq peaked at 5,132.50 and the S&P 500 at 1525.20.

A recent peak for the broad U.S. market was October 9, 2007. The S&P 500 index closed at 1,576 and the Nasdaq at 2861.50.

Market bottom

A market bottom is a trend reversal, the end of a market downturn, and precedes the beginning of an upward moving trend (bull market).

It is very difficult to identify a bottom (referred to by investors as "bottom picking") while it is occurring. The upturn following a decline is often short-lived and prices might resume their decline. This would bring a loss for the investor who purchased stock(s) during a misperceived or "false" market bottom.

Baron Rothschild is said to have advised that the best time to buy is when there is "blood in the streets", i.e., when the markets have fallen drastically and investor sentiment is extremely negative.

Examples

Some examples of market bottoms, in terms of the closing values of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) include:

The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit a bottom at 1738.74 on 19 October 1987, as a result of the decline from 2722.41 on 25 August 1987. This day was called Black Monday (chart).

A bottom of 7286.27 was reached on the DJIA on 9 October 2002 as a result of the decline from 11722.98 on 14 January 2000. This included an intermediate bottom of 8235.81 on 21 September 2001 (a 14% change from 10 September) which led to an intermediate top of 10635.25 on 19 March 2002 (chart[10]). The "tech-heavy" Nasdaq fell a more precipitous 79% from its 5132 peak (10 March 2000) to its 1108 bottom (10 October 2002).

A decline associated with the subprime mortgage crisis starting at 14164.41 on 9 October 2007 (DJIA) and caused a bottom of 6,440.08 on 9 March 2009 (chart).

Investor sentiment

Investor sentiment is a contrarian stock market indicator.

By definition, the market balances buyers and sellers, so it's impossible to literally have 'more buyers than sellers' or vice versa, although that is a common expression. The market comprises investors and traders. The investors may own a stock for many years; traders put on a position for several weeks down to seconds.

Generally, the investors follow a buy high, sell low strategy. Traders attempt to "fade" the investors' actions (buy when they are selling, sell when they are buying). A surge in demand from investors lifts the traders' asks, while a surge in supply hits the traders' bids.

When a high proportion of investors express a bearish (negative) sentiment, some people consider this as a strong signal that a market bottom may be near. The predictive capability of such a signal (see also market sentiment) is thought to be highest when investor sentiment reaches extreme values. Indicators that measure investor sentiment may include:

Investor Intelligence Sentiment Index: If the Bull-Bear spread (% of Bulls - % of Bears) is close to a historic low, it may signal a bottom. Typically, the number of bears surveyed would exceed the number of bulls. However, if the % of Bulls is at an extreme high and the number of Bears is at an extreme low, historically, a market top may have occurred or close to occurring. This contrarian measure is more reliable for its coincidental timing at market lows than tops.

American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) sentiment indicator: Many feel that the majority of the decline has already occurred once this indicator gives a reading of minus 15% or below.

Other sentiment indicators include the Nova-Ursa ratio, the Short Interest/Total Market Float, and the Put/Call ratio.

Market capitulation

Market capitulation refers to the threshold reached after a severe fall in the market, when large numbers of investors can no longer tolerate the financial losses incurred. These investors then capitulate (give up) and sell in panic, or find that their pre-set sell stops have been triggered, thereby automatically liquidating their holdings in a given stock. This may trigger a further decline in the stock's price, if not already anticipated by the market. Margin calls and mutual fund and hedge fund redemptions significantly contribute to capitulations.

The contrarians consider a capitulation a sign of a possible bottom in prices. This is because almost everyone who wanted (or was forced) to sell stock has already done so, leaving the buyers in the market, and they are expected to drive the prices up.

The peak in volume may precede an actual bottom.

Etymology

The precise origin of the phrases "bull market" and "bear market" are obscure. The Oxford English Dictionary cites an 1891 use of the term "bull market". In French "bulle spéculative" refers to a speculative market bubble. The Online Etymology Dictionary relates the word "bull" to "inflate, swell", and dates its stock market connotation to 1714.

One hypothetical etymology points to London bearskin "jobbers" (market makers),[citation needed] who would sell bearskins before the bears had actually been caught in contradiction of the proverb ne vendez pas la peau de l'ours avant de l’avoir tué ("don't sell the bearskin before you've killed the bear")—an admonition against over-optimism. By the time of the South Sea Bubble of 1721, the bear was also associated with short selling; jobbers would sell bearskins they did not own in anticipation of falling prices, which would enable them to buy them later for an additional profit.

Another plausible origin is from the word "bulla" which means bill, or contract. When a market is rising, holders of contracts for future delivery of a commodity see the value of their contract increase. However in a falling market, the counterparties—the "bearers" of the commodity to be delivered—win because they have locked in a future delivery price that is higher than the current price.

Some analogies that have been used as mnemonic devices:

Bull is short for 'bully', in its now mostly obsolete meaning of 'excellent'.

It relates to the common use of these animals in blood sport, i.e. bear-baiting and bull-baiting.

It refers to the way that the animals attack: a bull attacks upwards with its horns, while a bear swipes downwards with its paws.

It relates to the speed of the animals: bulls usually charge at very high speed whereas bears normally are thought of as lazy and cautious movers—a misconception because a bear, under the right conditions, can outrun a horse.

They were originally used in reference to two old merchant banking families, the Barings and the Bulstrodes.

Bears hibernate, while bulls do not.

The word "bull" plays off the market's returns being "full" whereas "bear" alludes to the market's returns being "bare".

In describing financial market behavior, the largest group of market participants is often referred to, metaphorically, as a herd. This is especially relevant to participants in bull markets since bulls are herding animals. A bull market is also sometimes described as a bull run. Dow Theory attempts to describe the character of these market movements.

International sculpture team Mark and Diane Weisbeck were chosen to re-design Wall Street's Bull Market. Their winning sculpture, the "Bull Market Rocket" was chosen as the modern, 21st century symbol of the up-trending Bull Market.

Criticism

The concept of market trends is inconsistent with the standard academic view of the price movement of the financial markets, the efficient-market hypothesis.

(source:wikipedia)