WASHINGTON ― President Obama ended a tumultuous 2010 on high notes with the passage of a tax-cut deal, a new nuclear arms treaty with the Russians, and the ending of "don't ask, don't tell" for gay members of the military.
But his Democrats also suffered devastating losses in the November elections, and the economy ended 2010 as it began: in an uneven, uncertain struggle to climb out of the deepest recession since the 1930s.
Now, 11 key questions greet 2011:
― Will the jobs recession finally end?
2010 will almost certainly end with 20 straight months of unemployment over 9% when the December jobs report comes out. Job creation will be Job One leading into the 2012 elections.
― Will there be a crisis-inducing showdown on the federal government's debt limit?
Many of the 84 new Republicans elected to the House of Representatives ran campaign ads criticizing opponents for raising the debt limit. Will they use it as an opportunity to shut down the government, or force deep spending cuts, when the need to raise that limit arrives early in 2011?
― How will the president handle a potential lose-lose situation in his promise to begin withdrawing troops from Afghanistan as early as July?
Those expecting whole brigades to come marching home may be disappointed; those who want a stable Afghanistan before the U.S.-led forces start pulling out may be, too.
― Will a shaky peace hold on the Korean Peninsula?
2010 ended with more saber rattling between North and South Korea than any time since the truce nearly six decades ago. North Korea ― nuclear-armed, isolated and under sanction – is the proverbial powder keg.
Sarah Palin is ``prayerfully" considering a presidential run. Unlike many of her potential rivals, she can wait until the latter half of 2011 to declare her intentions. Money and name ID won't be a problem. The GOP '12 field will not be complete until Palin declares one way or another.
Who emerges as hot, fresh Republican challengers for Obama?
For the first time in recent memory, Republicans don't have a logical next-in-line for the 2012 presidential nomination. Any number of newcomers could step into the breach, especially if Palin doesn't run.
Can Obama placate his liberal base?
He'll need an energized left to get re-elected in 2012. Liberals were mad at him for a tax deal that keeps breaks for wealthy taxpayers for two more years. But the gay military service breakthrough salved left-wing wounds. A big drawdown of troops from Afghanistan in 2011 might mend that left wing even more.
Will surviving Democratic moderates play along or defy Obama?
House Blue Dogs staged an insurrection against Nancy Pelosi for leader. But there are far fewer Blue Dogs since the November elections, and they may run with Republicans on issues like deficit reduction.
Will the Tea Party be as big a force in legislative battles as it was in the election?
We've seen a hint of what might be ahead. In December, a Tea Party backlash helped turn former Republican pork advocates into born-again pork busters after a massive spending bill contained a few billion dollars of pet "earmarks." That bill was rejected.
Will veteran Democrats stick it out or decide to call it quits leading into the 2012 elections?
Some House Democrats barely won re-election in 2010 and might look at serving in the minority as futile. Democrats or independent allies hold 23 of the 33 Senate seats up for grabs in 2012, several in GOP states.
Will Americans shake their wrong-track blues?
Surveys show that Americans are more sour on the country's direction and on their leading institutions than they have been in decades. New job creation could topple mountains of doubt. But many of the country's challenges defy short-term fixes, from debt to terrorism.
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